TOUR Fantasy Insider: Look outside U.S. for a winner
Brett Avery, the PGATOUR.com Fantasy Insider, says the fact that for the first time in 71 years international players outnumber homegrown ones should weigh heavily in your pick to win the Masters.
By Brett Avery, PGATOUR.COM Contributor
This is the week where you find out just how well you performed in the draft.
This is the week where you find out whether you've made astute waiver moves during the past three months.
This is the week where you find out if making a risky selection or two separates you from everyone else in the fantasy golf universe.
In fact, this is the week where if you've screwed up, it will come back to haunt you during every single green-tinted moment of television coverage.
And over the bowl of cereal the next morning as you read the newspaper.
No golf tournament draws the intense attention of The Masters, in part because of the scenery of Augusta National Golf Club and in part because of the drama surrounding the season's first major championship.
There is no lack of intensity in The Fantasy Insider's house during Masters week, and for that he is both gladdened and saddened.
For someone who grew up north of Buffalo and now resides in sunny New Jersey, the thought of four rain-free tournament days will make those last 15 minutes before 4 p.m. Thursday, when the first televised images appear on the screen, seem to drag on for two hours. This is the unofficial arrival of spring, the harbinger of outdoor activities returning to the Northern Hemisphere.
It's also one of the few times during the year when TFI has difficulty separating his rooting interests from his professional interests. He will spend four days whip-sawing between giddy celebration when one of his players does something exceptionally well -- and screaming at the television when one does not.
He would like to assure you that the selections listed below were made with calculation and stunning insight, guaranteeing their rock-solid dependability.
But he cannot.
It's difficult to know whether that queasy feeling in his stomach is nervous anticipation for the tournament or his body's rejection of his picks.
What it comes down to is this: TFI suggests you look outside the U.S. for a winner.
Now, TFI isn't going that route simply because, for the first time in 71 Masters, the homegrown players are outnumbered by foreign competitors. (Although he does like those odds.)
And he isn't whipping up some sappy, violin-backed story about how this being Gary Player's 50th tournament will prod the overseas players to greatness.
What it comes down to is this: TFI believes the foreign players, as a whole, want it more and can remain focused through the weekend better than their U.S. brethren.
So TFI's pretty much going with all-foreign picks -- even though about 20 overseas players ineligible for FedExCup points don't even appear among the Salary Cap Cup selections.
That doesn't mean TFI sees Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, the main protagonists these days, doing some sort of Ren and Stimpy beat-each-other-up act and forgetting about everyone else. They're smart enough to know there's no sense pounding on each other if someone else slips by them.
But TFI does sense the U.S. will be unable to continue its three-victory streak (Mickelson, Woods, Mickelson), the longest since the 1975-77 three-peat (Jack Nicklaus, Raymond Floyd, Tom Watson). The last time the U.S. won five out of the last six was the 1970s, too.
What's got TFI convinced is the quality of that foreign invasion: 14 players in the top 20 of the Official World Ranking, a full 13 players who have at least one top 10 in the past three years.
TFI's crossing his fingers and toes that this prediction rings true.
Because if U.S. players take, say, the top six spots on the leader board after 72 holes, that bowl of cereal Monday morning is going to be awfully difficult to swallow.
Three players TFI might pick up/trade for to get onto his roster this week:
-- Adam Scott. The Shell Houston Open represented his fifth victory worldwide in the past 24 months, a pace few players can match. But the new No. 3 player in the Official World Ranking also snapped a three-month funk since a season-opening Mercedes-Benz Championship title, a stretch during which he'd plodded to nothing better than a tie for 25th. He has a similar track record at Augusta National GC: tied for ninth in his 2002 debut, then nothing better than a tie for 23rd in four subsequent starts. It's high time he secures a green jacket for Australia and a first major for his mantle.
-- Jose Maria Olazabal. A tantalizing choice considering his age (41) and Masters pedigree (victories in 1994 and '99). A non-winner since the 2005 Mallorca Open on the PGA European Tour, he retains the game that led him to erase an opening 76 last year at Augusta National GC and still tie for third. He missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and last week's Shell Houston Open, which would seem to indicate he's not ready. But this represents his fourth straight week of play-- and he has a habit of finishing extremely well when he's been on the road that long.
-- Geoff Ogilvy. Since winning the WGC-Accenture World Match Play a year ago February he's played 24 events around the world, won once (U.S. Open), finished second three times, had a total of 10 top 10s and missed three cuts. He has been critical of Augusta National's changes yet still tied for 16th last year in his Masters debut.
Two players TFI might waive/drop/trade away to get off his roster this week:
-- Jim Furyk. TFI wouldn't touch him this week with a 20-foot pole: tied for 22nd last year, solo 28th the year before, some serious issues with distance on a stretched layout and a putting average (29.33, ranked 90th on TOUR) that spells a long week ahead.
-- Charles Howell III. For all the exciting moments this season, from the Nissan Open victory to a handful of close calls; for the fact that he's fifth this year in the TOUR's all-around stat and third in scoring average before the cut; for all the supposed seasoning he's gained in 20 previous starts in majors ? he wants this way too much. And missing the last two cuts by a mile (including 80-84 last year) only makes the situation worse.
Rotisserie results for Expert League at Shell Houston Open: 62.0 points (first!). First in fairways, greens and birdies, second in scrambling, stroke average, FedExCup points, third in putting. Overall: 58.0 points (first by 2.0 over Greg Vara of rotowire.com and Christian Peterson of fanball.com). TFI feels a lot better about leaving Steve Stricker (tied ninth) on the bench, although he could have used those putting stats for the overall standings.
Rotisserie lineup for Expert League at The Masters: K.J. Choi, Tim Clark, Padraig Harrington, Geoff Ogilvy. Active but not in lineup: Paul Casey, Colin Montgomerie, David Toms, Steve Stricker. Not in field: Anders Hansen, Ryan Palmer, Kevin Sutherland, Bubba Watson.
Match-play results for Public League 3359 at Shell Houston Open: St. Pete Crumbsnatchers 11.5, TFI 6.5. Overall: 7.4 (1.5-game lead in West Division). You know it's not a pretty sight when there's only four active players and one of them misses the cut, forfeiting two points.
Match-play lineup for Public League 3359 at The Masters: Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, Davis Love III, Nick O'Hern. Active but not in lineup: Mark Calcavecchia, Troy Matteson, Zach Johnson. Not in field: Anders Hansen, Daniel Chopra, Andrew Buckle, Jonathan Byrd, Frank Lickliter II.
Salary Cap Cup results for Shell Houston Open: The main lineup of Padraig Harrington (220 FedExCup points, tied 24th), Lucas Glover (0 points, missed cut), Bo Van Pelt (425 points, tied 14th), Nick Watney (83 points, tied 42nd) and Rich Beem (0 points, missed cut) earned 728 points and placed 16,720th in the first week of Segment 2.
The ?Hey, buddy? backup lineup of K.J. Choi (303 points, tied 19th), Angel Cabrera (303 points, tied 19th), Bob Estes (625 points, tied ninth), Joe Ogilvie (0 points, missed cut) and Justin Leonard (115 points, tied 36th) earned 1,596 points and placed 12,212nd in the first week of Segment 2.
Week 13 winner and Segment 2 leader: Chips & Dips 11,550.
Salary Cap Cup lineup for The Masters: Main lineup, Adam Scott $293,500, Geoff Ogilvy $277,250, Chad Campbell $212,250, Camilo Villegas $108,250, Fred Couples $101,750. Total: $993,000. ?Hey, buddy? backup lineup, Vijay Singh $280,500, Retief Goosen $274,000, K.J. Choi $231,750, Jerry Kelly $105,000, Bernhard Langer $95,250. Total: $986,500.
Have a question or comment for TFI? Send it to him at brettavery@aol.com. Please be sure to include your name, where you're from, the name of your team and, if it relates to League Championship, the name of your league and whether you're competing in the rotisserie or match-play format.